If there was ever a reminder of the fragility of democracy, 5 November 2024 was the day.
Much has been said already about Donald Trump’s (re)ascendence to the highest office in the world. Amidst the myriad criminal charges, scandals, allegations of sexual assault, racism and misogyny, and the general cacophony of disjointed chaos that appears to surround his every move, one thing became incredibly clear: the electorate simply didn’t care enough to deny him another term.
Given the polls consistently suggested this election was a coin-flip, Trump’s re-election should perhaps come as no surprise. But what is surprising is that, in what has long been billed as “the most important election of our lifetime” both in the United States and abroad, significantly fewer people appear to have voted in the 2024 US election than in the COVID-impacted 2020 election.
It’s a stark revelation that merits pause. While the vagaries and checks and balances of electoral systems vary across around the world – with voter turnout, for example, an irrelevant consideration in countries with mandatory voting like Australia – disengagement with politics and, more importantly, politicians, is a disease capable of afflicting any democracy.
And it’s a growing threat.
Trump’s shock election in 2016 was widely regarded as a mere symptom of a growing malaise with the political establishment, particularly in rural areas of the United States. It was oft warned and posited that although Trump would eventually move on, the movement that led to his rise to power would linger on.
And it did. Four years on, when former Vice President Joe Biden defeated the incumbent Trump, disaffected voters once again sought to dismantle who they perceived as the political elites, only this time in violent fashion: they stormed the US Capitol on January 6 seeking to capture and potentially murder Vice President Mike Pence and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In the end, only a couple of doors and security guards stood in the way of a raging mob and the potential collapse of the world’s most important democracy.
And now, in 2024, Trump’s re-election should make abundantly clear: in an era of stagnant wages, rising costs and simmering geo-political tensions, those who have lost the most from globalisation, from technology, and from capitalism generally, may well feel they have nothing left to lose. Why should they care if a candidate has been deemed a fascist, a rapist, or a criminal by the very system that he – and they – want to tear down?
Australians enjoy a robust political and legal system that is in many respects the envy of the world. There are many checks and balances in place preventing unintended outcomes, including mandatory and preferential voting, an independent federal election board charged with overseeing elections, and perhaps most importantly, a genuine separation of powers between the executive, judiciary and legislature.
But even so, Australia is not immune from the circumstances that have led to “Trump 2.0”. The rapid proliferation of misinformation, the ease with which the wealthy can influence political outcomes, and the unfortunate dearth of independent news media outlets, could easily describe the backdrop against which either the US or Australian elections are held.
Against that backdrop, growing disaffection in sufficient swathes of the electorate could signal shifts of many kinds, including a reversion to nationalist, isolationist policy agendas more in line with the pre-war era.
Nuanced political discourse will likely be lost on the electorate; opportunistic politicians around the world will seek to emulate Trump’s inimitable style, as have many in the US who stand poised to serve in the US Senate and House of Representatives, both of which the Republican Party is poised to control. Elections will increasingly be debated on personality and posture, not policy.
But most significantly, politics will be underpinned by division. Trump prevailed in part through his relentless push to distinguish “us” from “them”, sowing seeds of disunity in a country already torn apart. It’s the hypothetical “them” that each side of the aisle will be taught to fear, to hate – and ultimately, these emotions are stronger motivators for disaffected voters, certainly in a voluntary voting system but so too in a mandatory system.
Democracy can be a beautiful beast, even when it delivers unexpected outcomes. Indeed, many would argue that Trump’s successful re-election bid – particularly having won the popular vote and not merely 270 electoral college votes – is a perfect example of democracy in action.
But democracy doesn’t just comprise an elected government.
Democracy requires strong opposition, an engaged populace, and appropriate controls to prevent an undue concentration of power in one person or party. Without these, a democracy is largely decorative.
In re-electing a President seemingly determined to eliminate his political rivals – including by taking advantage of his Supreme Court-anointed immunity – the United States has held a matchstick up close to democracy. Only time will tell whether the match is lit.
For now, there is no denying that the outcome of the 2024 US election will trigger a seismic shift in global political discourse. Whether good or bad, its repercussions will be felt for decades to come.
