Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States to meet with President Donald Trump was widely anticipated to be a defining moment in US-India relations. While the media largely focused on trade disputes and reciprocal tariffs, the real story lies in the deeper, strategic shifts that took place behind closed doors. Modi US trip analysis
The Tariff Smoke Screen
One of the dominant narratives surrounding the visit was the issue of tariffs, particularly on American motorcycles like Harley-Davidson. Trump had long criticised India’s tariffs, calling them excessive, but the reality is far more nuanced. In the last budget, India had already slashed its tariff on completely knocked-down (CKD) motor-cycle kits to just 10%, and once Harley starts manufacturing components within India, the tariffs will drop to zero. Harley’s real problems with sales in India have been more because of its intrinsic high prices rather than tariffs. Similarly, the tariffs on nuclear reactors have been as low as 7.5% but have been held up because the US does not want its suppliers to be held liable for the products (remember Bhopal?). Rather than being a significant point of contention, however, this is an example of how trade agreements naturally evolve over time.
Meanwhile, the US itself uses non-tariff barriers to keep Indian goods out. A case in point: the long-standing ban on Indian mangoes, which persisted until 2007 due to exaggerated concerns over the mango seed weevil—an insect that causes no actual harm to humans or the fruit itself. This regulatory hurdle was arguably a greater obstacle to free trade than any tariff could have been. While Trump championed “free trade,” the real challenge for Indian exporters remains navigating the labyrinth of American regulations, which, unlike tariffs, are harder to negotiate away. Another pest in food: the Italian “maggot cheese”, is considered a delicacy by some although to be fair, that is also banned in the United States.
Trump on his reciprocal tariffs:
“India’s been, to us, just about the highest tariff nation anywhere in the world… it’s very hard to sell into India… We’re going to have the same. Whatever India is charging us, we’re charging them.” pic.twitter.com/ADBnPrpAAq— Alishan Jafri (@alishan_jafri) February 14, 2025
Trump’s Real Worry: The Trade Deficit
Despite the noise about tariffs, Trump’s primary concern was the US trade deficit with India. In an effort to mollify Washington, India made a major commitment—purchasing fifth-generation F-35 stealth fighters from the US. This move undoubtedly helped assuage Trump’s concerns, but it raises a more pertinent question: in an era of drone warfare and AI-powered military operations, are expensive fighter jets still the most relevant defence assets? With swarms of drones capable of inflicting high levels of damage at a fraction of the cost and risk, spending billions on fighter jets may not be the most strategic long-term decision, especially if low-cost anti-drones can damage it easily. Incidentally, India has already developed and showcased its indigenous anti-drone system.
The Human Cost of Illegal Migration
Another key issue that emerged from the talks was illegal immigration. Trump’s approval of the extradition of Canadian-Pakistani national Tahawwur Rana to India was a diplomatic win for Modi, but the broader agreement on Indian illegal migrants in the US was more controversial. Many of these individuals had paid smugglers—often up to USD 90,000 (AUD 141,000)—to enter the US illegally, making it clear that they were not impoverished asylum seekers but rather economic migrants. While their forced deportation may appear harsh, it sends a strong message to discourage future illegal crossings.
At the same time, the US remains open to legal migration from India. The F1 student visa program, for instance, allows graduates—particularly in STEM fields—to work in the US for up to three years after completing their degrees. Rather than clamping down on Indian migration altogether, the US appears to be shifting toward a preference for high-skilled workers over undocumented entrants. At the same time, Trump recently signed an executive order denying birthright citizenship to the children of legal but temporary residents, like H1B visa holders, and this is a matter winding its way through the American court system. Incidentally, both Australia and India have similar restrictions on children born of foreign parents. Modi US trip analysis
Strategic Technological Cooperation
Beyond trade and immigration, Modi and Trump announced the US-India TRUST initiative, which aims to boost collaboration in critical technologies like artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Additionally, the newly launched Strategic Mineral Recovery initiative seeks to secure supply chains for rare minerals—an area where China currently dominates. Given India’s growing technology sector and the US’s increasing desire to diversify its supply chains away from China, these initiatives could prove to be among the most consequential long-term outcomes of the visit.
A Diplomatic Win—But At What Cost?
Overall, Modi’s visit achieved several key objectives. The trade deficit issue was temporarily addressed, defence cooperation was expanded, and strategic agreements on technology and minerals were initiated. However, the real test will be in the coming years—whether India can leverage these commitments to its advantage or whether it has simply placated Washington with big-ticket purchases. Modi US trip analysis
Trump may have called Modi a “better negotiator” than himself, but history will judge whether this visit was a true win for India or merely a well-packaged compromise.
READ MORE: Trump’s tariff tango – Bluffmaster or ringmaster? – Indian Link
