Indian Election 2024: The four possible outcomes

On Tuesday 4 June, at 8am Indian Standard Time (IST), counting will begin to determine who will lead India for the next five years.  

By 9:30am, the trends will start emerging and unless it’s too close to call, we should have a result for the Indian Election 2024 declared by 4pm IST. 

This means Indians in Australia will go to bed knowing whether PM Modi and his party have achieved a historic third term, or whether there has been an upset and change of government in India.  

That is the beauty of democracy and the Indian Elections; despite many accusations of voter intimidation and lack of media freedom levelled against it, it has us using our best analyses to predict the outcome. 

The Indian Election 2024 results can go four ways: 

1. BJP with over 380 seats: Earlier in 2024, PM Modi coined this slogan of wanting 400 seats – a magic number which would give him and his party enormous power. Achieving this would mean Modi would have the right to call himself the best and most popular Prime Minister in India’s history, and he would dominate the political and social agenda for years to come. There is also the danger that the BJP Government could remove protections for discriminated minorities, as with a two-third majority in both houses of Parliament, they would have the constitutional right to do so. Analysts believe this fear of extreme control might prevent the party reaching this coveted target. To get there, not only does the BJP Government have to retain its current seats, but win more around the country, especially in India’s south where it has not had much success in the past. 
2. BJP wins 303-330 seats: This would place BJP’s latest results close to its 2019 seat count of 303. Though still a victory from PM Modi, many would see the lack of ground gained as the potential waning of his star. As the face of BJP, the expectation is that Modi’s dominance would only grow – but settling for the status quo here would drive the BJP back to the drawing board to analyse the brick wall they’ve hit. Opponents such as the Congress party would console themselves with ‘having stopped BJP’ but would still concern themselves with changes they need to make and whether the leadership hold of the Gandhi family should be challenged as they gear up to sit in opposition for another five years.  
3. BJP wins 250-303 seats and needs Coalition partners, the NDA, to govern: If the numbers fall in a way that BJP needs to depend on its Coalition partner, the National Democratic Alliance, it would be a serious blow for the aura of invincibility around PM Modi. The Coalition will demand their pound of flesh to keep BJP in power and analysts believe BJP would need to reel back some of its Hindutva policies. The future of PM Modi would also come under scrutiny. Such uncertainty in elections result would also spook investors and rattle India’s global positioning. 
4. BJP wins less than 235 seats and India has a new government: Though extolling the virtues of democratic processes, this would send shock waves around equity markets. A possible return of the Congress party would bring some balance to the far-right policies which have emerged in the last 10 years. This Coalition would need to decide who’ll lead the country – Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal, or Mallikarjun Kharge – and put together ministerial positions from its various alliances. It would also mean an immediate change in BJP leadership and a rethink of its policies. But the economic growth of India would continue on the tail winds of the last ten years of progress, which many say was a flow through of economic reforms beginning in 1991-92. 

Regardless of the result, it will be a fascinating week ahead for all followers of Indian politics.

READ ALSO: BJP’s magic number of 400 may be an illusion